Trump Is Going to Have a Big Impact on The Presidency one way or another!

The race for the Republican nomination is now down to 3 candidates. Marco Rubio was the latest figure to drop out when he failed to win his home state of Florida, leaving us with Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich who picked up a vital win in Ohio. Despite this victory for Kasich, Trump remains the clear front-runner.

Trump has a big lead in the delegate count but still has a hard task to reach the magic number of 1,237 delegates. Trump has to win a high percentage of the remaining delegates and could be held back by Cruz or Kasich who may benefit from Rubio’s exit. There is no certainty yet that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee.

In-spite of all the furore which has existed around Trump, he has hit a nerve in America. Regardless of the controversies and the scuffles which are happening with alarming regularity at his rallies, Trump’s numbers are solid. A significant proportion of the electorate believe in Trump and are loyal to him and support his position on building a wall and banning Muslims. These voters are angry and disillusioned and will not desert Trump; a man they believe is speaking their language.

This leaves the Republican hierarchy in a difficult position. They will know there are ways to stop Trump but will be wary of the consequences of doing this. The reputational damage of Trump running and the possible long-term damage has to be weighed against the electoral ramifications. If Trump fails to reach the delegates needed to automatically claim the nomination and is then blocked by the Republican Party then there is another possibility and that is Trump could run as a third party candidate.

Trump would use this stitch-up to his advantage insisting that he had been the victim of a grave injustice and needs to right this wrong. It is not feasible that Trump would win from this scenario but he could split the vote on the Right and take his voters with him and allow the Democratic candidate to come through and win. This is a headache the Republican Party could do without.

Whatever happens and nothing is finalised yet, Trump is not going to go quietly. That is not his style. However this ends and there are a few possibilities, one thing is for certain Donald Trump will be pivotal in the Presidential race. The Trump story has a few months to run yet and who would have predicted that at the start of the campaign.

 

 

Could 2016 see leadership contests in both our major political parties?

Not a lot unites Jeremy Corbyn and David Cameron. Politically they have very little in common, but this summer the two men could find themselves in similar situations. Both are under pressure from their own party and may face leadership challenges. Much must happen before we reach this stage, but could 2016 be the year where both Labour and the Conservatives attempt to oust their leader?

Labour are famously squeamish about removing their leaders and pride themselves in being different to the Conservatives in this regard. Attempted coups against Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown never materialised despite poor poll ratings and it would represent a change in character if Corbyn was removed.

Jeremy Corbyn has never commanded the support of the Parliamentary Labour Party though and this does mean he is in a precarious position. He faces great opposition from some MPs who believe his reign will have a disastrous effect on the Labour Party. This view is hardening amongst the moderate wing of the party who now seem prepared to act. A leadership contest appears inevitable, but with Corbyn’s support in the membership and the lack of an obvious successor there is no guarantee of success.

The Conservatives are traditionally more ruthless and historically have had few qualms about removing their leader. David Cameron despite winning in 2015 has never convinced all of his parliamentary party. The Eurosceptic wing of the party are unhappy with his current conduct and appear to be plotting a move after the referendum regardless of the result, with Boris potentially waiting in the wings. A loss would almost certainly make his position untenable, but even with a win has he now made too many enemies to feel safe in his position?

It is strange for both political parties to be divided at the same time, but this is the situation we find ourselves in. It ensures that we are in for an interesting couple of months with much speculation and gossip. With an EU referendum on the way and two potential leadership challenges, 2016 could turn out to be one of the more remarkable years of our modern political history. Now we have to sit back and wait and see.